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Facts & Figures

Fact 1:

2012 Predictions for the US Commercial Real Estate Capital Markets

Investment volume across the major property types in the US will grow by 50% to approximately $300b in 2012, with a good chance for a surprise to the upside. Commercial real estate remains very attractive relative to other asset classes, and it is likely that equity capital will be both more plentiful and more motivated over the coming year.

Additional considerations:

• Lenders still have at least $160b of troubled commercial mortgages to resolve or dispose.

• Significant transaction activity will be driven by upcoming loan maturities. While prices and loan terms have not improved enough to make refinancing feasible in most cases, properties can increasingly be sold at prices above their outstanding loan balance and are being listed for sale six to twelve months prior to maturity date.

• As the economic outlook improves and rents and occupancies start to rise consistently, inves­tors will face increasing pressure to invest before the expansion cycle reaches full swing and price appreciation accelerates.

Source: Real Capital Analytics Inc.

Fact 2:

The February edition of the Housing Scorecard was released by the Departments of Treasury and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) on Friday. Inventories of existing homes for sale have continued to improve over the last two quarters, declining from 3.2 million in the second quarter to 2.4 million in the fourth quarter.  Housing units held off the market have declined modestly, from 3.9 million in the first quarter of 2011 to 3.6 million in the fourth quarter.

Source: www.MortgageNewsDaily.com

Fact 3:

March 1, the 10 yr note rose to 2.06% before closing the day at 2.03%; it hit its near term support and held, just as when it falls to its resistance at 1.90%. The 10 and mortgage rates are well contained in their respective ranges, it’s been that way for months and likely to continue.

Source: www.tbwsratealert.com

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Non-Recourse. Think Again, Bad Boy. Print E-mail
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When seeking financing, most lenders require a personal guaranty from the borrower and/or guarantor in addition to the real estate pledged as collateral. This is known as a full recourse loan.

However, if no personal guaranty is required then the loan is considered non-recourse.

  • If the borrower and/or guarantor defaults, the lender/issuer can seize the collateral, but the lender's recovery is limited to the collateral.
  • The borrower and/or guarantor do not have personal liability - beyond the property that is pledged as collateral - for the loan.

Non-recourse financing is more commonly associated with “Conduit” lending a.k.a. securitized financing [commercial mortgage-backed securities - CMBS] or commercial loans.  The conduit lending industry made popular the concept of non-recourse loans, while obtaining certain exceptions (or "carve-outs") within the loan documents that result in full-recourse liability to the borrower and/or guarantor when certain "bad-boy" behaviors exist.

 
The Marshmallow Test Print E-mail
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Character all boils down marshmallows.

As we enter the final month of the first quarter of 2012, I reflect back to an event I knew would mark a period in history, and my career, from which we would have to persevere to overcome – a period that would test our character.

It was the summer of 2007, the subprime market imploded, followed then by the near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008, and now the debt crisis in Europe, a possible war with Iran, the lukewarm U.S. economic recovery, rising gas prices (now $4.65+ per gallon, CA), a gradually improving U.S. housing market (albeit fragile), and a constantly growing regulatory burden creating numerous complexities for lenders in an already overregulated U.S. mortgage industry.

Despite the challenges, we seem to roll with the punches. For many entrepreneurs and business owners, it’s all in a day’s work. We just simply persist through it all - whether by choice or by circumstance - making lemons out of lemonade!

Some would call this stick-to-itiveness. I call it character building.

Ok. So where do the marshmallows fit in?

 


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